Saturday, April 4, 2009

Depressions -- Great and Small

Panics and depressions come calling now and then; it has been that way throughout the 19th and 20th centuries – we seem not to know how to stop them. Some were preceded by periods of wild speculation, or banking excesses, as was reportedly the case with the great panic of 1819. A visit to that time in history, via Google, found this introduction.

The Panic of 1819

“A panic is precipitated by wild speculation in western lands, followed by a sharp contraction in credit, led by the Second Bank of the United States. A six-year depression ensues. America's first serious panic occurs early in the year and is followed by a depression.

Many state banks collapse, and enormous amounts of Western real estate are foreclosed by the Bank of the United States. But there are more fundamental causes for the crisis, of which the credit collapse is only a consequence and a symptom. The swollen demand for the products of American farms and factories, resulting from scant supply of such goods at home and abroad during the war, is now satisfied: the market is declining. As prices fall, money becomes difficult to come by, but the habit of borrowing, formed in the expansive years, cannot be shaken. Those who insist on a return to specie-hard money, are seen as turning the clock back.” BIBLIOGRAPHY: A Compilation of the Messages and Papers of the Presidents 1789-1897" By: James D. Richardson....A Representative from the State of Tennessee. Publisher: by Authority of Congress..1899. Ten Volumes total. Copyright: 1897 by James D. Richardson; New International Encyclopedia, Dodd, Mead and Co.-NY, Copyright: 1902-1905 21 Volumes; The Bicentennial Almanac, Thomas Nelson, Inc. publishers, New York. Copyright 1975.

Here is a picture of two centuries of people working on farms and elsewhere. Several generations of our ancestors are in this picture; so are the workers of today – but things have changed a lot during the two centuries displayed here. Where farms once provided jobs for more than a quarter of our population, farms now employ less than one percent.

 

18th_&_19th_Century_Jobs

Statistics for this chart are from three sources. Two of the sources are found in Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970. For the 19th century, Series D167-181 provides data for: (1) total labor force and (2) employment by area of work; unemployment is calculated as a residual. For charting, linear interpolation fills in the blanks.

Beginning with the year 1900, and through the year 1928, Historical Statistics of the US provides annual data for (1) labor force, Series D1, (2) farm employment, Series D6 and (3) nonfarm employment, series D7. Unemployment data for 1900 and later are from: (1) 1900-1947, Series D8; (2) 1948-1970, Series D18; and (3) 1971-2008 from the BLS website.

Because of the easy access (by anyone with a computer and keyboard) to all NIPA (National Income and Product Accounts) data; and also because of the ease with which it can be transferred to our worksheets, I have taken all the employment data for years beginning with 1929 from that source. NIPA Tables 6.4A,B,C &D provides data for all full-time and part-time workers. NIPA Tables 6.74A,B,C&D provides data for all self-employed persons.

 

Note that in neither the 19th or 20th century, depressions did not result in marked declines in farm employment. For the 19th century, we might chalk that up to the interpolations between decennial years. However, the Great Depression shows massive job losses among nonfarm workers with no similar losses beyond the general decline in farm jobs. Depressions always hurt a lot of people. In the 19th century, the greatest hurt in the farm community probably was from reduced wages; people on farms and in the horse trade, had to remain on the job to shovel the animal by-products – and there was a lot of that. In the 20th century, with its greater reliance on nonfarm jobs, the greatest hurt was from the outright loss of jobs and the purchasing power the jobs had provided. But in either case, the loss in purchasing power in both sectors cost everyone dearly.

It was about the year 1880 that employment off the farm caught up with employment on farm. We were now about half and half – farmers and everyone else. Farm folks could always eat; the jobless in cities and towns did not have it so easy. That's where the Great Depression caught us; a half-century into the transition; country folks hurt a lot too, but the breadlines and soup kitchens in cities and towns were downright awful. Where farms once provided jobs for more than a quarter of our population, farms now employ less than one percent. The credit for that enormous gain in farm productivity does not all go to the farm community, though some certainly does; they had to learn to employ the contributions of others, and they were many.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Growth_Jobs_GDP_Wage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

D 1-74 General Note- no heading - 500w

 

 

 

 

 

 

Series D 167-181- 730w

 

 

 

 

Jobs - from Farm to Factory-S